SERVM Software

Strategic Energy & Risk Valuation Model (SERVM)

SERVM is a state-of-the-art reliability and hourly production cost simulation tool that was originally developed by the Southern Company in the 1980s to support resource adequacy decisions. The model has been under continuous development since that time and has been used to support a wide range of system planning studies in the United States and Europe. SERVM is managed by Astrapé Consulting who provides consulting services and/or licenses the model to its users.

SERVM Capabilities

    • Probabilistic Production Cost Forecasts: Produce S Curve Analysis for future production cost years for any number of zones
    • Probabilistic Market Price Forecasts: Produce S Curve Analysis for future energy price forecasts for any number of zones
    • Probabilistic Energy Margin Forecasts: Produce S Curve Analysis for future energy margins by resource dispatch price for any number of zones
    • Physical Reliability Metrics: Produce Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), Loss of Load Hours (LOLH), Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) for any number of zones
    • Intermittent Penetration Studies: Understand reliability impact of increased intermittent generation
    • Intermittent ELCC Studies: Calculate the Effective Load Carrying Capability of intermittent resources on the system
    • System Flexibility Requirement Studies: Calculate the flexible resource needs for a system under varying intermittent penetration levels
  • Demand Response Resource Valuation: Understand the reliability contribution of various demand response programs at varying different penetration levels
  • Demand Response Call Expectation Studies: Provides expectation of actual demand response calls under varying weather, load, and penetration levels
  • Fuel Availability Studies: Understand the reliability impact of the electric system as fuel supply availability is captured and as there is an increase reliance on natural gas infrastructure


  • Fast, Hourly Chronological Model with Full Commitment and Dispatch
    • Takes into account heat rate curves, fuel prices, unit outages and maintenance, all variable operating costs, ramp rates, startup costs, ancillary service requirements
  • Simulates Full Distribution of the following:
    • Weather Years and its impact on Load and Resources (i.e. hydro, wind, and PV)
    • Load Growth Uncertainty
    • Fuel Prices
    • Environmental Policy Plans
    • Intermittent Resources
  • Multi-Area Modeling
  • Monte Carlo Simulation of Generation Outages
  • Allows Users to Implement Emergency Operating Procedures
  • Detailed Modeling of Demand Response and Price Responsive Resources
  • Captures Scarcity Pricing Dependent on System Conditions and User Inputs
  • Captures Spin, Non Spin, Reg Up, and Reg Down Services Independently
  • Allows Users to Input Uncertainty Distributions for Wind and Solar Resources

SERVM’s Reserve Margin analysis provides a dramatically improved understanding of resource adequacy risks, determining not only if a reliability event could happen, but also quantifies the likelihood, magnitude, and economic cost of each event. To perform this analysis, SERVM utilizes historical weather, economic load growth forecast error, historical hydro and other energy-limited resource data, and unit performance history to perform hundreds of thousands of independent hourly chronological simulations of any system. The results of the model deliver a full distribution of expected reliability events and their costs, allowing system planners to mitigate reliability concerns and economically plan the expansion of their system.

SERVM allows users to balance capacity cost, unserved energy societal costs, production costs and import purchases costs. The following figure can be created on the weighted average probability of all cases or at any confidence level. The economic results can be easily compared to physical reliability metrics such as Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE). The results can also be developed at different confidence levels.


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