SERVM: The industry-leading model trusted by entities across the globe to help answer their resource adequacy questions
How Strategic Energy & Risk Valuation Model (SERVM) Works
SERVM’s Reserve Margin analysis provides a dramatically improved understanding of resource adequacy risks, determining not only if a reliability event could happen, but also quantifies the likelihood, magnitude, and economic cost of each event. To perform this analysis, SERVM utilizes historical weather, economic load growth forecast error, historical hydro and other energy-limited resource data, and unit performance history to perform hundreds of thousands of independent hourly chronological simulations of any system. The results of the model deliver a full distribution of expected reliability events and their costs, allowing system planners to mitigate reliability concerns and economically plan the expansion of their system.
SERVM allows users to balance capacity cost, unserved energy societal costs, production costs and import purchases costs. The following figure can be created on the weighted average probability of all cases or at any confidence level. The economic results can be easily compared to physical reliability metrics such as Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE). The results can also be developed at different confidence levels.
SERVM Forecasts, Studies, and Metrics
SERVM Key Features
Takes into account heat rate curves, fuel prices, unit outages and maintenance, all variable operating costs, ramp rates, startup costs, ancillary service requirements
- Weather Years and its impact on Load and Resources (i.e. hydro, wind, and PV)
- Load Growth Uncertainty
- Fuel Prices
- Environmental Policy Plans
- Intermittent Resources